Operationalizing resilience optionality via hybrid simulation: a context-aware MTO execution framework
Computers and Industrial Engineering, cilt.216, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 216
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.cie.2026.112011
- Dergi Adı: Computers and Industrial Engineering
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Compendex, INSPEC, DIALNET
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Cynefin, Hybrid simulation, Make-to-order (MTO), Optionality, Production control, Resilience
- Maltepe Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study examines how execution strategies should be configured in manufacturing environments in which uncertainty and complexity vary jointly. Using the Cynefin framework, Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), and the Theory of Constraints (TOC) as complementary lenses, a stylized proof-of-concept Make-To-Order (MTO) model was developed through a design of experiments (DoE) methodology and evaluated using a hybrid simulation that combines Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), Discrete-Event Simulation (DES), and orthogonal experiments with contextual noise factors. In the first stage, fragile, robust, and optional/resilient execution logics were compared across Cynefin-like domains using Throughput Dollar Days (TDD), Inventory Dollar Days (IDD), Operating Expenses (OE), and a Multi-Response Performance Index (MRPI). The results do not indicate universal first-stage dominance of a single fixed rule; instead, favorable configurations vary by domain and reflect trade-offs mainly between reductions in TDD and IDD and increases in OE. In a separate second stage, simulation-based parameter refinement of a selected optional/resilient rule set reduced the total cost indicator by approximately 33% (95% confidence interval [CI]: [31%; 37%]) relative to a pooled static baseline of comparable experiments. This study contributes by framing optionality as context-contingent switching among predefined execution rule sets and by showing how Cynefin, CAS, and TOC can be used to structure the evaluation of execution-rule choice under jointly varying uncertainty and complexity. The findings are limited to a stylized firm-level MTO setting without field validation.